BIZCHINA / Impacts
The sixth speedup may have little impact on airlines
(China Daily)
Updated: 2007-04-23 14:42
A highlight of the sixth speedup is the use of Electric Multiple Units
(EMU), or multi-car electric trains, on intercity routes. These
high-speed speed trains will connect cities in the three delta areas and
major city clusters. The system also links regional centers, such as
Beijing and Shanghai.
The development will cut travel time by 20 to 30 percent on average.
Passenger transport capacity should increase by at least 18 percent,
while cargo transport capacity should rise by 12 percent.
The ministry's goal is to give passengers a faster and more comfortable
travel experience and thus keep people using trains for intercity travel.
But Wu Wenhua, a researcher with the National Development and Reform
Commission's Macro Economy Research Institute, said that because rail and
air travel have competing advantages, the sixth speedup might not have a
big effect in terms of dividing the travel market.
"Railways have definite advantages in short and middle-distance
transport, which is between 400 and 1,000 km," said Wu, who headed a
research project on what effect the speedup would have on airlines.
"But the picture is not as optimistic as the Ministry of Railways would
like to think because railways will not be able to compete with airlines
in long-distance transport, usually 1,000 km and above."
Raw passenger figures for 2005 from the General Administration of
Aviation in China and the Ministry of Railways show both train and air
travel is increasing, and nine times as many people take the train as
fly. But that is as low as the ratio has ever been.
Ultimately, the future of travel in this country will look something like
trains getting most of the short and middle-distance business, but planes
used more for long-distance travel, Wu said.
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