Free Chinese Lesson - Montreal Protocol's success must be assured

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Opinion / Commentary

Montreal Protocol's success must be assured

By Achim Steiner (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-09-18 07:28

It was 1987. The Soviet Union launched the Mir Space Station, the world
population reached five billion, Oscar Arias Sanchez won the Nobel Peace
Prize and Paul Simon's Graceland was named record of the year. But
perhaps the key event occurred in Canada, when the world's nations agreed
to the Montreal Protocol to repair and protect the Earth's protective
ozone layer.

The treaty is perhaps the single most successful international
environmental agreement ever made. It generates science and deploys funds
to assist developing countries to phase out ozone damaging chemicals,
like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons. A fluorocarbon with chlorine,
CFCs were formerly used as a refrigerant and as a propellant in aerosol
cans. Halon is a compound in which the hydrogen atoms of a hydrocarbon
have been replaced by bromine and other halogen atoms. Used in fire
extinguishers, it is thought to release bromine that depletes the ozone
layer.

But the impact of the treaty stretches beyond safeguarding public health
from excessive ultra violet rays from the sun.

It is now clear that - as ozone depleting substances are also often
powerful greenhouse gases - the treaty has also spared the planet and its
people much global warming. Above all, it is a symbol of how, when faced
with a serious international threat, nations can set aside differences
and make common cause under the United Nations.

This week governments are meeting in Montreal and mark the protocol's
20th anniversary and the past, present - and also perhaps future -
achievements of those who have made it a success. Future because - though
95 per cent of the substances it controls have been phased out - the
remaining five per cent may prove troublesome. Getting rid of them is
necessary for the ozone layer's full recovery.

Meanwhile some ozone depleting chemicals are also being increasingly
employed in ways that fall outside the treaty's provisions. One example
is quarantine and pre-shipment fumigation uses of methyl bromide which
falls outside the control limits for methyl bromide specified under the
protocol. Recently, as per ISPM-15 fumigation requirements for export
consignments, methyl bromide is being used for wooden palettes fumigation
and this being a quarantine use, is exempt from Montreal Protocol control
measures.

The United Nations Environment Program's (UNEP) involvement in the issue
began in 1977 following rising disquiet over links between CFCs, once
common in products like hairsprays, and damage to the Earth's protective
ozone layer. The big catalyst for action came when the British Antarctic
Survey found an ozone hole over Antarctica in 1985. Remarkably,
governments acted swiftly to agree on the treaty once the science was
accepted. Just as important, industry - once provided with
incontrovertible evidence - also moved fast to provide and use
alternatives.

The Multilateral Fund-which has provided more than $2 billion in funding
for developing countries' phase outs - is another key to success. This
summer China shut down five plants, putting it two-and-a-half years ahead
of the developing countries' 2010 deadline for phasing out CFCs and
halons.

A big challenge for governments meeting in Montreal is how the treaty can
contribute even more to combating climate change. Scientists from the
Netherlands and the United States estimate that, by 2010, phasing out
CFCs and other ozone depleting substances will save the equivalent of 11
gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year. This compares to a cut of just one
gigatonne over 1990 levels mandated under the Kyoto Protocol, or two
gigatonnes from what the 2010 levels would be if emissions have been
allowed to grow unchecked.

New assessments indicate that the protocol could achieve even more since
some of the alternative chemicals to CFCs, such as HCFCs, a fluorocarbon
that has replaced chlorofluorocarbon as a refrigerant and propellant in
aerosol cans, also have climate change impacts.

These suggest that a combination of accelerated freeze and phase out, and
the introduction of more climate-friendly products and relatively small
changes in industrial practices could cumulatively cut the equivalent of
between 18 gigatonnes and 25 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide over the coming
decades.

A new set of calculations, produced by the Montreal Protocol's Technology
and Economic Assessment Panel, suggests perhaps even bigger benefits with
cumulative reductions equivalent to close to 40 gigatonnes of carbon
dioxide.

A draft of proposals to accelerate a freeze and bring forward a phase out
of HCFCs in about a decade are being submitted to the 19th Meeting of the
Parties to the Montreal Protocol for approval.

Interestingly they represent the determination of both developed and
developing countries to maximize the climate combating potential of the
ozone treaty countries from Africa, Latin America, Europe and North
America among the proponents.

These developments come amid an increasing political momentum to realize
ever deeper cuts in greenhouse gases. It follows a series of reports by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that have put a full
stop behind the science - climate change is happening, it is
"unequivocal" say the more than 2,000 scientists.

The IPCC has also spotlighted the likely and sobering impacts from the
melting of glaciers in the Himalayas to more frequent and more intense
floods from Bangladesh to New York.

The IPCC has also sounded a note of cautious optimism - it will not cost
the Earth to save it, perhaps 0.1 per cent of global GDP annually for 30
years.

Some of the "quickest wins" include accelerating energy efficiency in
buildings in rapidly developing regions such as Asia and a global phase
out of old energy guzzling light bulbs in favor of compact fluorescent
ones. An accelerated freeze and phase out of HCFCs now represents another
of those "quick wins" which needs to be more widely understood and
supported.

It is certainly a message that UNEP will take on from Montreal to New
York only days later. Here Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, is
hosting a high level event on climate change with heads of state.

The climate achievements and the future climate benefits of the ozone
protection treaty offers a clear illustration to world leaders that
action on climate change is achievable and possible on a far wider front
than may be commonly perceived.

It is the kind of confidence building across continents and across
varying economic and national interests which can also assist in
delivering a successful outcome at the crucial climate convention
negotiations in Bali in December.

So the story of the Montreal Protocol has not yet reached its final
chapter. There is much more to do and wider benefits to be harvested. But
it has already achieved much to celebrate, putting the ozone layer on the
road to recovery and helping to slow the pace of climate change.

Experts calculate that - without the decisions taken 20 years ago -
atmospheric levels of ozone depleting substances would have increased
10-fold by 2050, leading to up to 20 million more cases of skin cancer
and 130 million more cases of eye cataracts, not to speak of damage to
human immune systems, wildlife and agriculture. Its continued success,
politically and financially, must be assured.

The author is UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of UNEP

(China Daily 09/18/2007 page11)

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