WORLD / Middle East
Hezbollah a tough foe for Israel
(AP)
Updated: 2006-07-25 09:14
Figures released by the Israeli army show the pace of Hezbollah rockets
raining down on Israel has not slowed, and the guerrillas are nowhere
close to being neutralized. (click to see full coverage on Middle
East Conflict)
Israeli soldiers take up positions as they advance towards Israel-Lebanon
border July 20, 2006. [Reuters]
Air power alone is proving insufficient to rout Hezbollah, whose
determination and intimate knowledge of the terrain are making them a
tougher-than-expected foe.
Mideast observers say Hezbollah only has to remain standing, not beat
Israel, to emerge victorious in Arab eyes.
Hezbollah actions such as blowing up an Israeli warship with an
Iranian-made radar-guided missile or firing rockets at the once
out-of-range city of Haifa have shattered taboos and astounded Israel and
the world.
The Shiite group has built Viet Cong-style bunkers and tunnels near the
Israeli border to shelter weapons and fighters, and its members easily
blend in among civilians.
"You are dealing with groups of 10 to 12 very well organized, very well
trained people who work out of their homes," said Timur Goksel, a
university professor who spent more than two decades as a senior UN
adviser in south Lebanon. "Don't underestimate the resilience of these
people."
Israel says it has already taken out nearly half of the estimated 10,000
to 12,000 Hezbollah rockets in south Lebanon, and that its blockade of
the country should help keep the guerrillas from restocking.
But Israeli army figures show there's been no letup in the number of
rockets Hezbollah has fired at Israel. Since fighting began, the count
stands at more than 1,100, with the number more or less evenly divided
over the past 12 days. At least 80 rockets hit Israel on Monday, and two
days ago the number was 129.
Most of Hezbollah's rockets have been Iranian-made Katyushas and
Syrian-made Raads, with ranges up to 28 miles. Israel also believes
Hezbollah possesses the Iranian-made "Zalzal" rocket, which has the range
to hit Tel Aviv and cities farther south.
"Certainly Hezbollah doesn't seem to have suffered many casualties and I
don't think their military capability has been degraded," Goksel said.
Israel's army chief of staff maintained Friday that nearly 100 guerrillas
had been killed in fighting that broke out July 12 when Hezbollah crossed
into Israel and captured two Israeli soldiers. But military officials
have privately lamented what they called the low number of Hezbollah
casualties. Hezbollah itself reports only 11 dead.
Fearing a prolonged quagmire and heavy casualties among its troops,
Israel says it has no intention of launching a massive land invasion to
defeat Hezbollah. But the past several days' small-scale pinpoint
operations to root out guerrilla positions along the border are proving
far more daunting than expected, according to soldiers returning from
battle.
The troops complain of difficult terrain and being surprised by Hezbollah
guerrillas who pop out from behind bushes firing automatic weapons or
rocket-propelled grenades. Two Israeli soldiers were killed and 20 were
wounded Monday as they tried to take the southern Lebanese town of Bint
Jbail amid a heavy exchange of gunfire, missiles and mortars.
The pinpoint incursions are supposed to accomplish what the 4,000 Israeli
air sorties have been unable to achieve. But the twin strategy of
airstrikes and limited ground offensives will not be enough to force
Hezbollah to refrain from launching attacks, said Israeli counter
terrorism expert Boaz Ganor.
The issue is fraught with dilemmas for the Jewish state.
Israel is determined not to reoccupy south Lebanon as it did disastrously
from 1982 to 2000, but that may be the only way to neutralize Hezbollah.
Israel might want to use a cease-fire to achieve its strategic goals. But
a cease-fire that leaves Hezbollah's fighting ability intact could, in
the eyes of many Israelis, cause irreparable damage to Israel's deterrent
posture and hand a major victory to archenemy Iran, Hezbollah's prime
supporter.
Israeli Cabinet minister Avi Dichter insisted the army's offensive is
going fine and that Israel can't be expected to achieve its military
objectives overnight, especially given what he said was the government's
determination to limit casualties among civilians and Israeli soldiers.
"We know that only in Hollywood it starts at 8 and ends at 10 and
normally it's a happy end," he said.
More than 350 people have been killed in Lebanon since the fighting
began, according to security officials. Some 600,000 people have fled
their homes.
More than 35 Israeli's have died, including 22 soldiers.
If Hezbollah emerges from the fighting with its "military arm more or
less intact ... my God they're going to use it as a victory," Goksel said.
"As long as they don't lose, they don't have to win ... because they'll
be standing up to the Israelis and in this part of the world that is a
victory."
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